Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:31:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ac9…576c crypto 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$220 (+4%) realized +$129 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%52W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days−$129
14 days−$116
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$77
politics 26% +$194
crypto 21% −$161
culture 2% +$12
other 1% −$6
sports 0% $0
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.1% -11.5% 50% 33% -18.9%
≤30d 116 -16.3% -24.2% 45% 32% -9.0%
≤90d 116 -16.3% -24.2% 45% 32% -9.0%
all 116 -16.3% -24.2% 45% 32% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 32% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 23% -17.7%
15% -38.1% 16% -25.7%
20% -44.2% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses52 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)116 / 143
History coverage27d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $130 $140 +$10 (+8%)
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? No 93¢ 99¢ $69 $73 +$4 (+6%)
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? No 95¢ 100¢ $68 $72 +$4 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 19¢ 81¢ $12 $50 +$38 (+325%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 7¢ 71¢ $5 $48 +$43 (+856%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 83¢ 95¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+14%)
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 43¢ 30¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-30%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? No 99¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 50¢ 90¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+80%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026? Yes 96¢ 48¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 52¢ 10¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-81%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +161%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $112 +$55 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $529 −$13 -2%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $157 +$12 +8%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $24 −$3 -13%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $110 −$84 -76%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $108 −$26 -24%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $67 −$66 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +36%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $32 −$10 -32%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 11 $115 −$2 -1%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -23%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $103 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $53 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $68 −$66 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$26 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$22 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $129 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$5 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +75%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$6 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$4 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $68 −$21 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$2 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$3 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$1 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $24 +$5 +21%
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 10, 12AM ET? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 0m
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 93¢ $56 1h
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY Yes 90¢ $13 1h
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY Yes 94¢ $99 1h
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY No 95¢ $69 1h
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $33 40h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 32¢ $3 46h
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 2d
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $64 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 5¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 5¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.32 · official $611.47 (match) · 1107 history records