Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:29:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7A 0x7acc…53ed crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate64%29W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$47
14 days+$63
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$25
other 31% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.7% -2.5% 67% 67% +13.5%
≤30d 11 +24.3% +12.5% 73% 73% +19.9%
≤90d 45 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 47% -3.5%
all 45 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 47% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 47% -3.5%
10% -20.0% 38% -12.7%
15% -27.8% 27% -21.1%
20% -34.8% 18% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses29 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage48d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$28 +47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $16 +$9 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 20 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 20 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 19 $23 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 19 $12 −$10 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 18 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 18 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 18 $49 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 18 $14 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 18 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 14 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 03 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 03 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 03 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 03 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 03 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 03 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 03 $19 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 03 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 03 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 03 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 03 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.11 · official $88.11 (match) · 177 history records