Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7A 0x7acc…c5b9 sports 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$5,700 (+15%) realized +$5,707 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%68W / 45L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day54.6pace
Fees−$969est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,291
7 days+$3,953
14 days+$5,155
30 days+$5,390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$5,704
other 8% −$315
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +152.1% +128.1% 71% 51% +8.4%
≤30d 113 +74.0% +57.4% 60% 42% +3.2%
≤90d 113 +74.0% +57.4% 60% 42% +3.2%
all 113 +74.0% +57.4% 60% 42% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.4% 42% +3.2%
10% ← realistic here +42.3% 28% -6.7%
15% +28.6% 18% -15.7%
20% +16.0% 16% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +140% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$39 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.05 per $1 lost it wins $4.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5,707
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses68 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$969
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage25d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day54.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $309 +$57 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $418 +$16 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,445 +$277 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $189 +$44 +23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $550 +$54 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $732 +$561 +77%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $728 +$108 +15%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $700 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $635 +$41 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $700 −$85 -12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,312 +$775 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $786 +$191 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $188 +$163 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $847 −$22 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $569 +$418 +73%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $200 +$20 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $700 −$327 -47%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,478 +$1,051 +71%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $54 +$3 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $629 +$56 +9%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $222 −$15 -7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,182 +$183 +16%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $341 +$57 +17%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $382 +$25 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $151 −$18 -12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $27 +$5 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1,266 +$165 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $101 +$23 +22%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $604 +$15 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $332 +$1 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $613 +$147 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $25 +$6 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $342 +$251 +74%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $200 −$10 -5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $200 −$22 -11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1,274 −$170 -13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $608 −$82 -14%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $200 −$4 -2%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $600 +$20 +3%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $200 −$80 -40%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $491 +$255 +52%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1,739 −$173 -10%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $13 −$1 -11%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $712 +$80 +11%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $43 +$4 +9%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $228 22m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $7 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $2 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $16 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $20 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $77 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $16 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $3 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $47 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $67 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $96 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $42 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $13 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $36 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $116 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $318 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $6 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $18 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $15 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $17 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $15 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $307 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $15 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $35 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $370 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.87 · official $0.50 (match) · 1374 history records