Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7acd…db69 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$470 (-20%) realized −$470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days−$59
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$502
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 43% -0.3%
≤30d 19 +6.7% -3.5% 37% 37% -55.2%
≤90d 58 -17.6% -25.5% 33% 26% -29.8%
all 58 -17.6% -25.5% 33% 26% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 26% -29.8%
10% -32.6% 21% -36.6%
15% -39.1% 16% -42.7%
20% -45.1% 14% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$23 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage86d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $57 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$41 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$3 -26%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$15 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$19 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$13 +617%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 −$94 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 02 $104 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 02 $128 −$35 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 02 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 22 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 22 $100 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 22 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 22 $198 +$63 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 22 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 13 $13 −$11 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 13 $63 −$37 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 06 $8 +$5 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 06 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 06 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 05 $120 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 05 $70 +$50 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 05 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 05 $28 +$55 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 05 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 05 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 05 $32 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 05 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 04 $21 −$9 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $25 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $47 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $34 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records