Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7ad2…d858 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-3%) realized −$39 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$34
politics 17% −$8
sports 16% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 2 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.5%
≤90d 2 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.5%
all 7 -4.0% -13.1% 0% 0% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -13.6%
10% -21.4% 0% -21.8%
15% -29.0% 0% -29.4%
20% -36.0% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$7 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage208d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 58¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 86¢ 86¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $99 −$5 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $101 −$3 -3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Nov 25 $120 −$3 -2%
Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 65 and 70 million views on Nov 24 $227 −$7 -3%
Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 55 and 60 million views on Nov 24 $247 −$20 -8%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Nov 24 $215 −$8 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $94 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $94 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $99 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $98 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 19h
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 22¢ $46 171d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 171d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 171d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 171d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 171d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 171d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 171d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 21¢ $1 206d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 23¢ $117 206d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 23¢ $80 206d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 23¢ $40 207d
Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 65 and 70 million views on SELL No 87¢ $220 207d
Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 65 and 70 million views on BUY No 90¢ $227 207d
Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 55 and 60 million views on SELL Yes 31¢ $227 207d
Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 55 and 60 million views on BUY Yes 34¢ $207 207d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $207 207d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? BUY No 29¢ $100 207d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? BUY No 28¢ $115 207d
Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 55 and 60 million views on BUY Yes 34¢ $40 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.91 · official $195.91 (match) · 25 history records