Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7ad7…8050 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$477
7 days−$461
14 days−$461
30 days−$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$670
politics 5% −$21
sports 4% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -58.1% -62.1% 20% 20% -86.6%
≤30d 5 -58.1% -62.1% 20% 20% -86.6%
≤90d 5 -58.1% -62.1% 20% 20% -86.6%
all 16 -33.0% -39.4% 38% 31% -61.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 31% -61.2%
10% -45.2% 19% -64.9%
15% -50.5% 19% -68.3%
20% -55.3% 12% -71.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$77 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage609d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $34 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $415 −$380 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +62%
Solana above $130 on April 4? Apr 03 $346 −$155 -45%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $54 +$32 +59%
Solana above $170 on November 8? Nov 07 $156 −$103 -66%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Nov 06 $105 +$51 +49%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Nov 05 $26 −$3 -10%
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? Nov 04 $25 $0 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $22 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin up on Nov 6? Nov 01 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election? Nov 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Oct 22 $20 +$4 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $415 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $414 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $86 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $87 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 21h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 21h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $214 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 6d
Solana above $130 on April 4? BUY Yes 13¢ $155 444d
Solana above $130 on April 4? SELL No 73¢ $155 444d
Solana above $130 on April 4? BUY No 50¢ $106 444d
Solana above $130 on April 4? SELL No 68¢ $106 445d
Solana above $130 on April 4? BUY No 55¢ $85 446d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 13¢ $85 446d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 8¢ $54 573d
Solana above $170 on November 8? SELL No 1¢ $54 591d
Solana above $170 on November 8? BUY No 4¢ $156 591d
Ethereum all time high in 2024? SELL Yes 12¢ $156 591d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 42¢ $23 592d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.51 · official $33.51 (match) · 63 history records