Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7adb…93f4 other 55 markets active 11h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-12%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$3
sports 33% −$2
tech 7% −$7
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -15.8% -23.8% 45% 39% -29.5%
≤30d 33 -15.8% -23.8% 45% 39% -29.5%
≤90d 33 -15.8% -23.8% 45% 39% -29.5%
all 33 -15.8% -23.8% 45% 39% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 39% -29.5%
10% -31.1% 39% -36.2%
15% -37.7% 33% -42.4%
20% -43.8% 18% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)33 / 55
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 31¢ 32¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +194%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 11h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 38h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 38h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 38h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 38h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 38h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 38h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 100¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $3 2d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 36¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 22¢ $1 4d
Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.00 · official $35.00 (match) · 76 history records