Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ae1…8c1b sports 104 markets active 9h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (212 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,730 (+3%) realized +$1,730 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate66%69W / 35L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$498per market
Trades / day211.8pace
Fees−$1,392est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days+$913
14 days+$1,399
30 days+$1,447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$1,418
other 15% +$302
world 2% −$12
crypto 1% −$262
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (212 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -0.9% -10.3% 62% 28% -7.0%
≤30d 104 +2.1% -7.7% 66% 25% -7.0%
≤90d 104 +2.1% -7.7% 66% 25% -7.0%
all 104 +2.1% -7.7% 66% 25% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover211.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 25% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 13% -15.9%
15% -24.6% 13% -24.0%
20% -32.0% 8% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$640) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$38 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,730
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses69 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,392
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage14d
Avg bet$498
Trades / day211.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 +$44 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $93 +$17 +18%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $75 +$68 +91%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $210 +$232 +110%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $772 −$185 -24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $959 +$107 +11%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $250 +$9 +4%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $302 −$2 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $158 +$7 +4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,638 +$34 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $313 −$68 -22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,408 −$112 -8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $97 +$47 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $833 −$12 -1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $481 −$11 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $126 +$104 +83%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $429 +$77 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $647 +$10 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $714 +$42 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $227 +$27 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $717 +$44 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $200 +$12 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $640 +$113 +18%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $141 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $470 −$110 -23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $63 +$8 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $406 −$6 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $194 +$13 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $162 +$8 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $856 +$19 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $453 +$14 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $420 +$28 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $111 +$52 +48%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $424 −$34 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $337 $0 -0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $563 +$248 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4,979 +$84 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $647 +$72 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $351 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $25 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $25 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $25 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3128 history records