Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ae4…fc82 weather 890 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,664 (-9%) realized −$2,621 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%475W / 409L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day74.8pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$214
7 days−$599
14 days−$3,747
30 days−$1,323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$1,284
sports 29% −$534
crypto 4% −$38
finance 0% +$8
other 0% −$41
world 0% +$5
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 +1.5% -8.2% 36% 19% -18.5%
≤30d 713 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 35% -14.3%
≤90d 884 +1.4% -8.2% 54% 38% -15.0%
all 884 +1.4% -8.2% 54% 38% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 38% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 31% -23.1%
15% -25.0% 28% -30.6%
20% -32.4% 24% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +27% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$18 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$2,621
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses475 / 409
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions25
Markets (closed)884 / 890
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day74.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 884 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 56¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2026-27? Yes 58¢ 11¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-81%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27? Yes 58¢ 6¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-90%)
Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? Yes 37¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 84¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27? Yes 53¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27? Yes 31¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27? Yes 47¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Utah Jazz in 2026-27? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will LeBron James play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will LeBron James play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will LeBron James play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $115 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 17 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $33 −$10 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $131 −$10 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $72 −$58 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $92 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $74 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $18 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $83 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $12 +$7 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $54 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $266 −$80 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $68 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $92 −$27 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $25 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $14 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $138 +$24 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $16 −$4 -25%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $4 +$4 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $90 −$22 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 33¢ $3 36m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 57¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 61¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 61¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? SELL No 59¢ $57 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $58 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 53¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 56¢ $55 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 69¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 97¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $63 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 15¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $67 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.24 · official $6.91 · 3500 history records