Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ae5…5e94 crypto 376 markets active 24h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-2%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%189W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$93
other 2% −$14
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 300 -10.7% -19.2% 47% 43% -16.4%
≤30d 300 -10.7% -19.2% 47% 43% -16.4%
≤90d 320 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 42% -18.4%
all 376 -11.2% -19.6% 50% 40% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 40% -12.1%
10% -27.3% 37% -20.5%
15% -34.3% 34% -28.2%
20% -40.8% 34% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses189 / 187
Open positions0
Markets (closed)376 / 376
History coverage118d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 376 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 29h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 30h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 856 history records