Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ae9…faca sports 456 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,030 (+3%) realized +$890 · open +$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%212W / 230L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$635
14 days−$1,577
30 days−$887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$166
other 36% +$983
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +69.7% +53.5% 67% 67% +60.0%
≤30d 71 -47.2% -52.3% 24% 24% -25.1%
≤90d 198 -17.7% -25.5% 42% 41% -11.2%
all 442 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 48% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 48% -6.1%
10% -23.2% 47% -15.1%
15% -30.7% 42% -23.3%
20% -37.5% 34% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$42 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$1,695
Realized+$890
Unrealized+$140
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses212 / 230
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions10
Markets (closed)442 / 456
History coverage240d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $997 $1,203 +$206 (+21%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 44¢ 44¢ $149 $147 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 57¢ 56¢ $129 $128 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $150 $104 −$46 (-30%)
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $21 $31 +$10 (+47%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$3 (+14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $26 $14 −$12 (-48%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $3 −$15 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $302 +$230 +76%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $88 −$86 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe Jun 21 $102 +$346 +340%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 +$78 +152%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $233 +$117 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $83 +$25 +31%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $39 +$44 +114%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 12 $39 −$1 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $30 −$29 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $20 +$6 +32%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 10 $29 −$29 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Set Handicap: Kypson (-1.5) vs Kouame (+1.5) Jun 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 09 $51 −$24 -48%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 09 $51 −$30 -60%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Beatrice Ricci vs Tamara K Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Andrea Pellegrino vs Lloyd Harris Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Cristian Garin vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $54 −$54 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Set Handicap: Chwalinska (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 09 $133 −$35 -26%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Bonzi (+2.5) Jun 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Musetti (+1.5) Jun 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 09 $111 −$111 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame Jun 09 $131 −$131 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi Jun 09 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 09 $155 −$155 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $208 −$137 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $151 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: BUY 12¢ $50 3h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 57¢ $130 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $302 15h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $88 16h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 27¢ $112 18h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Urug BUY 28¢ $77 42h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 22¢ $102 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $233 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $103 7d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $102 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $83 10d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $83 10d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $39 10d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 59¢ $39 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY 25¢ $18 11d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $19 11d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 12d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 63¢ $30 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 12d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 86¢ $26 13d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $20 13d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 48¢ $29 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 13d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 13d
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 40¢ $28 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $102 14d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 69¢ $91 15d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,695.38 · official $1,743.75 · 1140 history records