Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7aeb…3559 weather 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%86W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$76
14 days−$41
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$40
world 3% +$8
tech 1% +$4
crypto 1% +$5
politics 0% −$1
other 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 38 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 90 +0.2% -9.3% 91% 6% -9.8%
all 94 +0.2% -9.3% 91% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.0% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$23 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses86 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage109d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 76¢ 89¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+16%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $132 −$21 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $132 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $130 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $195 −$64 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $192 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $190 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $186 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $179 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $177 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $170 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $167 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $154 +$14 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $146 +$6 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1 $0 -60%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $5 +$3 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $144 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $140 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $138 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 30? May 30 $134 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $129 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $127 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $120 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $115 +$4 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 25? May 24 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 24? May 24 $106 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 23? May 23 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $111 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 18? May 20 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $107 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 15? May 15 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 14? May 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 13? May 13 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11? May 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 10? May 10 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 9? May 09 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 8? May 08 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 08 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 8? May 08 $41 −$4 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $111 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $111 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 84¢ $111 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $132 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $131 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $132 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $132 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $130 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 61¢ $48 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 65¢ $83 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $195 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $195 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $192 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $193 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $190 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $189 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $186 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $187 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $179 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $179 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $177 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $176 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? BUY No 96¢ $170 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $170 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $169 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $167 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $168 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? BUY No 91¢ $154 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $153 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $152 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.66 · official $10.66 (match) · 194 history records