Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7af1…5a2d other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,000 (+9%) realized +$1,002 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%28W / 74L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$853now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$392
7 days+$17
14 days+$421
30 days+$651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$139
tech 20% +$362
sports 14% +$580
world 5% +$144
weather 5% −$258
crypto 1% −$95
politics 1% −$18
finance 0% $0
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.4% -15.3% 25% 22% -8.7%
≤30d 46 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 28% +8.3%
≤90d 102 -8.5% -17.2% 27% 24% -0.6%
all 102 -8.5% -17.2% 27% 24% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 24% -0.6%
10% -25.1% 20% -10.1%
15% -32.3% 18% -18.8%
20% -39.0% 17% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$29 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$853
Realized+$1,002
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses28 / 74
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions8
Markets (closed)102 / 112
History coverage75d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $300 $290 −$10 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $31 −$17 -54%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 2 Nottingham Forest FC? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $123 −$33 -27%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 28 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 26? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 27? Jun 17 $56 −$54 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$58 +703%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $255 +$452 +177%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $26 −$3 -13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 −$25 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$4 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$42 -83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +59%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$45 +291%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$15 +58%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 −$4 -12%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$18 -86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -10%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $100 −$36 -36%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $608 +$404 +66%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 +$114 +112%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? May 28 $138 −$40 -29%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $427 +$45 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 20 $14 −$13 -94%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $69 +$124 +178%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $330 −$291 -88%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $31 −$7 -22%
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner? Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 40m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $403 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 10h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 26h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 33h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 33h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 43h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 44h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $660 2d
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 2¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $853.02 · official $853.02 (match) · 642 history records