Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7af6…df75 weather 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate94%82W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$5
weather 31% −$5
other 8% −$1
world 5% −$10
tech 2% +$3
sports 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.7% -14.7% 90% 0% -17.0%
≤30d 34 -8.4% -17.2% 88% 3% -12.2%
≤90d 77 -2.8% -12.1% 95% 5% -10.2%
all 87 -1.9% -11.3% 94% 7% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 7% -10.0%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses82 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage140d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 46¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $15 −$9 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 2? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 18 Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 27? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 27? May 28 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 22 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on May 21? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on May 21? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 21? May 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? May 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $3 $0 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 15? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 15? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 13? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 10? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 10? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $10 13d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 19d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? BUY No 97¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 26d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $1 27d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 27? BUY No 97¢ $20 27d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 27d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.85 · official $52.85 (match) · 190 history records