Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7A 0x7afa…81b4 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$36 · open −$27

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +175% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +148% what you keep after slip

Net edge+148%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate75%9W / 3L

Drawdown52%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$629now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$96

7 days+$96

14 days+$96

30 days+$96

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+148.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+247.2%	+214.1%	89%	67%	+4.3%
≤30d	9	+247.2%	+214.1%	89%	67%	+4.3%
≤90d	9	+247.2%	+214.1%	89%	67%	+4.3%
all	12	+174.6%	+148.4%	75%	58%	-1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+148.4%	58%	-1.3%
10%	+124.7%	58%	-10.8%
15%	+102.9%	42%	-19.4%
20%	+83.0%	42%	-27.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +175% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +8% → late +341% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage

Net worth$629

Realized+$36

Unrealized−$27

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses9 / 3

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions6

Markets (closed)12 / 18

History coverage119d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown52%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$250	$249	−$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$190	$191	+$1 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$82	$70	−$12 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$67	$61	−$6 (-10%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alex Pereira	51¢	48¢	$32	$29	−$2 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$35	$28	−$7 (-19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 15	$184	+$48	+26%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$77	+$49	+64%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$74	+$3	+4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 14	$39	−$39	-99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta	Jun 14	$32	+$8	+24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$16	+$15	+93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$15	+$1	+8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 13	$8	+$7	+86%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 13	$4	+$4	+83%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol	Feb 16	$18	−$18	-100%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey silver medal at the 2026 Winter	Feb 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Feb 16	$1	+$1	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$32	43m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	SELL Sean OMalley	99¢	$232	51m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Sean OMalley	78¢	$59	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$59	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Sean OMalley	78¢	$125	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	SELL Diego Lopes	99¢	$125	3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Diego Lopes	60¢	$77	4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$77	4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Natus Vincere	55¢	$39	10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta	SELL Vitality	100¢	$39	10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta	BUY Vitality	80¢	$32	13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL TheMongolz	100¢	$31	13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY TheMongolz	51¢	$16	15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Vitality	92¢	$15	36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY Natus Vincere	53¢	$8	42h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	54¢	$4	4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$36	8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$69	8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$74	8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$84	8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$256	8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$256	8d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	118d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey silver medal at the 2026 Winter	BUY Yes	19¢	$4	118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$2	118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$1	118d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	118d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $629.24 · official $628.41 (match) · 39 history records