Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:52:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7A 0x7afe…9107 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$64 (+19%) realized +$66 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown23%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-14.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+76.2%	+59.5%	100%	100%	+59.5%
≤90d	4	-5.6%	-14.6%	75%	25%	+35.8%
all	4	-5.6%	-14.6%	75%	25%	+35.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.6%	25%	+35.8%
10%	-22.8%	25%	+22.8%
15%	-30.2%	25%	+10.9%
20%	-37.1%	25%	+0.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +50% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt +50% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$14 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.37 per $1 lost it wins $5.37

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage

Net worth$207

Realized+$66

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions5

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage89d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown23%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	100¢	99¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-0%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	Over	22¢	22¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5	Over	10¢	10¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-5%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5	Over	4¢	4¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	May 30	$101	+$77	+76%
Ducks vs. Oilers	Apr 22	$15	−$14	-99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?	Apr 22	$4	$0	+1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?	Apr 22	$6	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	4¢	$2	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	10¢	$2	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	22¢	$2	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$203	1h
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	BUY Knicks	56¢	$101	26d
Ducks vs. Oilers	BUY Oilers	64¢	$15	57d
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the	BUY No	100¢	$3	89d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$4	89d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?	BUY No	99¢	$6	89d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.87 · official $206.91 (match) · 12 history records