Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7A 0x7aff…9bbf other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$776 (+19%) realized +$776 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$854
7 days+$1,166
14 days+$1,168
30 days+$1,135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$364
sports 14% +$641
crypto 8% +$88
tech 6% −$176
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +86.8% +69.0% 69% 69% +20.3%
≤30d 21 +56.4% +41.5% 62% 62% +18.4%
≤90d 31 +39.4% +26.1% 58% 55% +10.6%
all 31 +39.4% +26.1% 58% 55% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.1% 55% +10.6%
10% +14.0% 52% +0.0%
15% +3.0% 42% -9.7%
20% -7.1% 26% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$81 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$776
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage43d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$226 +221%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$39 -19%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $18 +$145 +785%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$13 -63%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$221 +55%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $302 +$92 +30%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $609 +$292 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $302 +$69 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$136 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $697 −$488 -70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$55 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$397 +388%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $45 +$24 +53%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +43%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $34 −$34 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 +$1 +16%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 16 $71 −$69 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 16 $80 −$70 -88%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 14 $201 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +19%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $36 +$139 +388%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $30 +$22 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $328 40m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $163 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 23h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $394 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 28h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 42h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 49¢ $302 42h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $339 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $209 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $697 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $294 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $499 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $102 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records