Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

7B 0x7b01…79e4 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$56 (+2%) realized +$37 · open +$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate90%19W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$117per market

Trades / day25.0pace

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-5.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+4.4%	-5.5%	90%	43%	-8.1%
≤30d	21	+4.4%	-5.5%	90%	43%	-8.1%
≤90d	21	+4.4%	-5.5%	90%	43%	-8.1%
all	21	+4.4%	-5.5%	90%	43%	-8.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover25.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-5.5%	43%	-8.1%
10% ← realistic here	-14.5%	10%	-16.9%
15%	-22.8%	5%	-24.9%
20%	-30.4%	0%	-32.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

53% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -0% → late +9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$117 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.16 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$212

Realized+$37

Unrealized+$19

Win rate (resolved)90%

Wins / losses19 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$117

Trades / day25.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET	Down	55¢	61¢	$193	$212	+$19 (+10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 19	$171	+$28	+16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 19	$161	+$9	+5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 19	$150	+$12	+8%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 19	$126	+$25	+20%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 19	$99	+$25	+26%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 19	$69	+$31	+46%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 19	$62	+$6	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET	Jun 19	$180	−$118	-66%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 19	$166	+$15	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 19	$142	+$23	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 19	$127	+$10	+8%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 19	$112	+$20	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 19	$98	+$15	+15%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Jun 19	$90	+$7	+8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 19	$87	+$2	+3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 19	$83	+$5	+6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 19	$71	+$13	+18%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 19	$63	+$8	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 19	$115	−$115	-100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 19	$108	+$8	+7%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 19	$100	+$8	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$199	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$199	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$171	2m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$161	6m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$150	11m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$126	17m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$99	20m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$69	25m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$62	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET	SELL Down	21¢	$62	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$180	1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$166	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$142	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$127	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$112	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$98	1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$90	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$87	1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$83	2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$71	2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$70	2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$63	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$115	2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$108	3h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$100	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.07 · official $224.23 · 46 history records