Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7B 0x7b08…796c other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized −$83 · open +$98

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$254per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+3.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+14.4%	+3.5%	67%	33%	+38.4%
≤30d	3	+14.4%	+3.5%	67%	33%	+38.4%
≤90d	3	+14.4%	+3.5%	67%	33%	+38.4%
all	3	+14.4%	+3.5%	67%	33%	+38.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.5%	33%	+38.4%
10%	-6.4%	33%	+25.2%
15%	-15.5%	33%	+13.1%
20%	-23.8%	33%	+2.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +53% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$266 vs −$48 · ×5.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×11.18 per $1 lost it wins $11.18

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$198

Realized−$83

Unrealized+$98

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage7d

Avg bet$254

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	46¢	$100	$198	+$98 (+98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$368	+$511	+139%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$498	+$21	+4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$49	−$48	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	35¢	$878	57m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$162	1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$102	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$205	1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$470	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$49	3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$49	3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$495	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.83 · official $132.61 · 16 history records