Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b09…1d4d other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$85 (+9%) realized +$69 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$97
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$58
sports 39% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -8.5% -17.3% 36% 32% +1.2%
≤30d 23 -12.5% -20.9% 35% 30% -4.4%
≤90d 23 -12.5% -20.9% 35% 30% -4.4%
all 23 -12.5% -20.9% 35% 30% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 30% -4.4%
10% -28.4% 30% -13.6%
15% -35.3% 26% -21.9%
20% -41.7% 26% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$13 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage10d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$16 +53%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$2 -4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$26 +51%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$35 +68%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 −$21 -70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $97 +$34 +35%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$4 -7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 +$38 +75%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $47 −$4 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$10 -25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$10 -20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$52 +102%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -96%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$44 +87%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $46 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $76 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $85 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 13¢ $9 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $131 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $97 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $47 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $31 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 84¢ $89 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 60¢ $43 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 48¢ $41 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $47 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $103 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.01 · official $66.01 (match) · 55 history records