Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7B 0x7b0a…276c crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized +$11 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate72%13W / 5L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day97.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-8.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+1.2%	-8.4%	72%	44%	-2.0%
≤30d	18	+1.2%	-8.4%	72%	44%	-2.0%
≤90d	18	+1.2%	-8.4%	72%	44%	-2.0%
all	18	+1.2%	-8.4%	72%	44%	-2.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover97.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.4%	44%	-2.0%
10% ← realistic here	-17.2%	33%	-11.4%
15%	-25.2%	22%	-20.0%
20%	-32.5%	22%	-27.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 44% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

23% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)72%

Wins / losses13 / 5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage1d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day97.0

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 16	$1	+$1	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$3	-79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 16	$30	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Jun 16	$46	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 16	$36	+$12	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 16	$20	+$4	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Jun 16	$27	−$3	-12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 16	$14	+$12	+81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 16	$19	+$2	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 16	$16	−$10	-64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 16	$41	+$6	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$6	+54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 16	$6	+$4	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 16	$21	−$11	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Jun 16	$15	+$1	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$1	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	SELL Up	95¢	$2	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$1	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	SELL Down	14¢	$1	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$2	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$2	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$21	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$5	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$5	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$5	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$5	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Down	83¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Up	27¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$44	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$1	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$2	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	SELL Down	31¢	$7	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$2	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$5	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$5	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$5	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$14	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$5	55m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records