Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b0a…f217 crypto 227 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86 (-5%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate70%159W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day95.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 -6.0% -15.0% 70% 66% -13.5%
≤30d 227 -6.0% -15.0% 70% 66% -13.5%
≤90d 227 -6.0% -15.0% 70% 66% -13.5%
all 227 -6.0% -15.0% 70% 66% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 66% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 42% -21.8%
15% -30.6% 14% -29.4%
20% -37.4% 4% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses159 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day95.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$7 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 638 history records