Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b0b…c3df other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$598 (+3%) realized +$1,027 · open −$429
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day91.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,095
7 days+$2,121
14 days−$578
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$2,717
world 28% −$260
other 27% +$2,472
finance 2% −$166
tech 0% −$42
sports 0% +$25
culture 0% +$6
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +71.6% +55.3% 75% 75% +28.5%
≤30d 43 +11.5% +0.8% 47% 44% -10.7%
≤90d 49 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 39% -10.9%
all 49 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 39% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 39% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 37% -19.4%
15% -27.7% 37% -27.2%
20% -34.8% 37% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
41.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$107 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$1,027
Unrealized−$429
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$436
Trades / day91.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $257 $187 −$70 (-27%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $93 $3 −$90 (-97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $436 −$109 -25%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,722 +$1,583 +92%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,873 +$618 +22%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +133%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$31 +307%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $4,885 −$2,699 -55%
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elliot die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2 +$1 +84%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $652 +$515 +79%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2 +$1 +75%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2 +$2 +80%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $3 +$2 +97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $5,047 +$16 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $5 +$5 +86%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $9 +$8 +90%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $9 +$9 +92%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $9 +$9 +103%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $12 +$10 +88%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $18 +$15 +83%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $17 +$16 +91%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 25? May 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? May 21 $11 −$3 -24%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in May? May 21 $10 −$5 -45%
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be below 74%? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 70B in Q1? May 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Intuit (INTU) beat quarterly earnings? May 21 $45 −$40 -89%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 21 $418 −$110 -26%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 20 $2 +$15 +710%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Mystery Box" during his next YouTube video? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Kendrick" or "Lamar" be said on ICEMAN? May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Applied Materials (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings? May 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $500 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $500 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $500 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $42 4h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 45h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.78 · official $441.78 (match) · 3500 history records