Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b0c…a1aa sports 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,250 (+19%) realized +$5,350 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%39W / 45L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,372
7 days+$1,723
14 days+$1,814
30 days+$3,490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$3,386
other 40% +$2,205
crypto 5% −$1,312
world 4% +$641
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -6.9% -15.7% 44% 44% +5.5%
≤30d 64 +3.2% -6.7% 48% 48% +5.7%
≤90d 84 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 46% +7.7%
all 84 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 46% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 46% +7.7%
10% -21.2% 46% -2.6%
15% -28.8% 46% -12.1%
20% -35.8% 40% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$407 vs −$241 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$598
Realized+$5,350
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage49d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 45¢ 44¢ $315 $312 −$4 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 69¢ $195 $208 +$13 (+7%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $21 $32 +$12 (+55%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 10¢ $147 $30 −$117 (-79%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $287 +$413 +144%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $107 −$107 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $243 +$157 +64%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 +$103 +101%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $255 +$245 +96%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $226 +$146 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,470 +$1,530 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $884 −$884 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $440 −$420 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $841 +$1,224 +146%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 −$303 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $239 +$161 +67%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $128 +$392 +307%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $254 −$248 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,990 +$1,778 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,319 −$1,302 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $454 −$448 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $234 +$356 +152%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $222 +$578 +260%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $235 −$232 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $303 +$126 +42%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $363 +$245 +68%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $345 +$155 +45%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 06 $104 −$103 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $1,003 +$1,097 +109%
Spread: Georgia (-2.5) Jun 05 $408 −$400 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $326 −$302 -93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $220 +$279 +127%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $152 +$111 +73%
Will Wales vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 02 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $120 +$80 +66%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $203 +$251 +123%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 May 31 $30 +$37 +122%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $533 +$558 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $203 −$180 -88%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $320 15m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $149 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $4 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $28 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $163 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $161 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $4 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $4 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $4 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $4 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $4 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $82 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $21 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $5 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $38 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $8 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $49 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $400 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $98 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $243 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $255 40h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $226 42h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $36 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $12 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.11 · official $598.14 (match) · 251 history records