Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7B 0x7b0d…1584 crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$97 (+0%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%45W / 1L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$968per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$985now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$36
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 27 +0.0% -9.5% 96% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 46 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 46 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,032) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$148 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$985
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses45 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage53d
Avg bet$968
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $985 $985 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $981 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $978 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $975 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $966 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $963 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $958 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $956 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $953 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $951 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $949 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $945 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $935 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $926 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $923 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $905 +$17 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $893 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,040 −$148 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,032 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,028 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? May 30 $1,022 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? May 29 $1,016 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $1,012 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? May 28 $443 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 27 $221 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 27 $787 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 26 $1,006 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $997 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $1,092 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 19 $1,087 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $1,077 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17? May 17 $1,074 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $1,069 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? May 15 $1,065 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 14? May 14 $1,056 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 13? May 13 $1,049 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $1,048 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11? May 11 $1,039 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? May 10 $1,029 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 9? May 09 $1,021 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 8? May 08 $1,017 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 7? May 07 $1,015 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 06 $1,009 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? May 05 $1,003 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 03 $998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? May 02 $998 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $289 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $696 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $221 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $642 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $55 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $46 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $978 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $560 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $379 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $966 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $963 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $958 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $956 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $953 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $951 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $949 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $945 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $935 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $401 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $297 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $198 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $30 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $923 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $984.89 · official $984.89 (match) · 140 history records