Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b11…9361 crypto 797 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (391 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,704 (+8%) realized +$2,703 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%434W / 473L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day391.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (391 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 905 +4.3% -5.6% 48% 36% -11.1%
≤30d 907 +4.4% -5.6% 48% 36% -11.1%
≤90d 907 +4.4% -5.6% 48% 36% -11.1%
all 907 +4.4% -5.6% 48% 36% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover391.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 36% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 27% -19.6%
15% -22.9% 20% -27.4%
20% -30.4% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$2,703
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses434 / 473
Open positions1
Markets (closed)907 / 797
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day391.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 907 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 38¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$3 -158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$7 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$12 -173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$4 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$3 -176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$11 -155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$3 -132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$18 -158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$8 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$10 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$19 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$9 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$9 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$21 -292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$9 -134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.40 · official $3.27 · 3500 history records