Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b16…0c68 world 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 432d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%26W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$4
other 17% +$1
politics 15% $0
sports 15% −$1
crypto 3% −$2
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 26 +1.3% -8.4% 46% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 68 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 3% -9.4%
all 87 -1.2% -10.6% 30% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

432d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses26 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage432d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 44¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $73 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $37 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $82 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 +17%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $117 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $82 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $37 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $39 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $39 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $103 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $33 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $19 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $61 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $38 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $37 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $1 +$1 +63%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $122 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $38 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $13 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $24 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $37 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $42 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $42 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $13 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $23 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $7 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $9 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $16 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $38 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $38 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $37 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.63 · official $38.28 (match) · 321 history records