Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7B 0x7b16…723b other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$21 (-11%) realized −$20 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%5W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Kalshi-fit9%portable

Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$5

7 days−$12

14 days−$22

30 days−$22

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-22.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+6.9%	-3.3%	67%	67%	-21.0%
≤30d	10	-14.6%	-22.8%	50%	50%	-26.5%
≤90d	10	-14.6%	-22.8%	50%	50%	-26.5%
all	10	-14.6%	-22.8%	50%	50%	-26.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.8%	50%	-26.5%
10%	-30.2%	30%	-33.5%
15%	-36.9%	30%	-39.9%
20%	-43.1%	20%	-45.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$71

Realized−$20

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses5 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)10 / 11

History coverage10d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$72	$71	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$30	−$30	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$26	+$4	+15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$17	+$9	+51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$7	+$10	+132%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$5	+$2	+44%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	Jun 18	$7	−$7	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$7	$0	-5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$6	+$1	+17%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	42¢	$74	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$30	12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$26	18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$17	29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$7	33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$5	41h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	BUY Yes	61¢	$4	6d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	BUY Yes	58¢	$3	6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	69¢	$3	7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	69¢	$3	7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$7	7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$7	7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$6	7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$6	9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.97 · official $70.97 (match) · 19 history records