Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7B 0x7b18…b252 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$48 (+23%) realized +$48 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip

Net edge+40%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+40.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+106.5%	+86.8%	67%	33%	+82.1%
≤30d	4	+54.9%	+40.1%	50%	25%	+8.7%
≤90d	4	+54.9%	+40.1%	50%	25%	+8.7%
all	4	+54.9%	+40.1%	50%	25%	+8.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+40.1%	25%	+8.7%
10%	+26.7%	25%	-1.7%
15%	+14.5%	25%	-11.2%
20%	+3.2%	25%	-19.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +55% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$39 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.37 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized+$48

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage17d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$15	$14	−$1 (-4%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$21	−$21	-100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$40	+$2	+6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$26	+$106	+414%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 06	$60	−$58	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs.	BUY	4¢	$8	31m
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Panama vs. Croa	BUY	40¢	$25	32m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.	BUY	13¢	$5	33m
Panama vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	69¢	$43	1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	64¢	$40	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	7¢	$21	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	19¢	$26	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06?	BUY Yes	7¢	$9	17d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.18 · official $58.18 · 13 history records