Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b1c…39ae crypto 347 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$658 (+14%) realized +$635 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%200W / 125L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$230
14 days+$296
30 days+$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$20
sports 15% +$666
other 8% −$54
tech 5% +$62
world 0% −$9
economics 0% +$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +20.3% +8.9% 50% 50% +25.8%
≤30d 42 -20.5% -28.0% 36% 36% +23.1%
≤90d 48 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 42% +27.9%
all 325 +1.7% -7.9% 62% 49% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 49% +3.7%
10% -16.8% 21% -6.2%
15% -24.8% 19% -15.3%
20% -32.2% 18% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$635
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses200 / 125
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions22
Markets (closed)325 / 347
History coverage176d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 80¢ 100¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+25%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 48¢ 84¢ $13 $23 +$10 (+76%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 79¢ 82¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 40¢ 66¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 31¢ 32¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 48¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 19¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $193 +$211 +110%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $26 −$20 -79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $251 −$54 -22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$17 +414%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $36 +$62 +172%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $9 −$6 -67%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $50 +$14 +27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $103 +$41 +39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $35 +$31 +91%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$11 +112%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $1 +$2 +216%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 10 $2 +$3 +124%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $5 +$4 +86%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Player 99 win Beast Games: Season 2? Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Player 191 win Beast Games: Season 2? Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 82¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 82¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 81¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 50¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 87¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 15¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 13¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 11¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 21¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 40¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 37¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 41¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 38¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 28¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 29¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 31¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 34¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 44¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 37¢ $5 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.79 · official $136.79 (match) · 827 history records