Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7b20…eb02 weather 613 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,399 (+16%) realized +$1,349 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%280W / 330L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$176
14 days+$352
30 days+$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$1,214
other 2% +$7
crypto 0% −$16
sports 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +40.2% +26.8% 51% 43% +11.4%
≤30d 205 +35.0% +22.2% 44% 37% +5.3%
≤90d 610 +29.8% +17.4% 46% 40% +2.3%
all 610 +29.8% +17.4% 46% 40% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.4% 40% +2.3%
10% +6.2% 35% -7.5%
15% -4.1% 31% -16.4%
20% -13.5% 29% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$1,349
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses280 / 330
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)610 / 613
History coverage89d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 610 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? No 69¢ 100¢ $34 $50 +$15 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 21¢ 97¢ $9 $44 +$35 (+363%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $20 −$6 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 −$12 -45%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$7 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$9 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$3 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$25 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +154%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$4 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$4 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$25 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$5 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$15 +104%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $7 +$28 +378%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$5 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$27 +81%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$26 +185%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$7 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $0 +$2 +600%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 +$46 +1150%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$19 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$12 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$6 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$12 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $62 +$33 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $35 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $23 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 64¢ $21 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 60¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 60¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $28 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.43 · official $139.43 (match) · 1891 history records