Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b23…e20f sports 688 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,919 (-10%) realized −$21,914 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%303W / 381L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$475est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,754now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269
7 days+$214
14 days−$8,655
30 days−$8,663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$21,436
finance 3% −$664
other 2% −$27
crypto 1% +$103
world 0% −$142
economics 0% +$66
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -17.9% -25.7% 24% 24% +1.4%
≤30d 63 -52.5% -57.0% 25% 14% -70.1%
≤90d 185 -26.4% -33.4% 39% 23% -23.5%
all 684 -15.1% -23.2% 44% 35% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 35% -18.9%
10% -30.5% 33% -26.6%
15% -37.2% 31% -33.7%
20% -43.4% 28% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$240 vs −$250 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$1,754
Realized−$21,914
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses303 / 381
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$475
Open positions4
Markets (closed)684 / 688
History coverage233d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1,020 $1,019 −$1 (-0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $545 $541 −$4 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $147 $148 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 36¢ 36¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $690 +$310 +45%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $49 −$48 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $343 +$157 +46%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $14 −$6 -43%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $45 −$28 -62%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$12 -54%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $13 −$8 -63%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $110 −$108 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$101 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $44 −$5 -11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $54 +$287 +529%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $34 +$36 +108%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $93 +$107 +115%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 157.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $100 +$20 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 10 $28 −$28 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 10 $47 −$46 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5 Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 10 $207 −$207 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 10 $349 −$349 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 10 $140 −$140 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 Jun 10 $196 −$196 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 10 $466 −$466 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Jun 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 10 $487 −$487 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 10 $429 −$429 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 10 $683 −$683 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 10 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $584 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $298 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $446 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $148 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $253 5h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $48 5h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $49 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $690 14h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 7¢ $17 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 33¢ $36 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $45 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,754.17 · official $1,754.19 (match) · 2859 history records