Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b25…10aa sports 1303 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$567 (+3%) realized +$564 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%657W / 635L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day53.9pace
Fees−$286est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days+$74
14 days−$168
30 days−$933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$601
other 4% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 45% -6.9%
≤30d 739 -6.2% -15.1% 49% 47% -17.3%
≤90d 1292 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 49% -12.1%
all 1292 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 49% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 49% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 47% -20.6%
15% -28.7% 43% -28.2%
20% -35.7% 36% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$564
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses657 / 635
Est. fees paid−$286
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1292 / 1303
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day53.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Roberto Carballes Baena 59¢ 81¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 50¢ 65¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 38¢ 42¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Facundo Acosta 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Benjamin Bonzi 54¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 57¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Karolina Muchova 56¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Vekic 38¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Zizou Bergs 29¢ 22¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 +$8 +73%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $11 +$8 +73%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $21 −$1 -3%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $10 +$12 +121%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $11 +$7 +69%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$7 +37%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +146%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $10 +$17 +165%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +67%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +73%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $10 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 54¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 50¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $11 13h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 64¢ $10 14h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 59¢ $10 14h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 57¢ $10 14h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $10 15h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 56¢ $10 15h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 34¢ $10 17h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 19¢ $10 17h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 24¢ $9 18h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 55¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $11 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $10 19h
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 20¢ $11 20h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 62¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $10 23h
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski BUY Pedro Boscardin Dias 32¢ $11 24h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 56¢ $10 24h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 57¢ $10 24h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $10 24h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 60¢ $10 24h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 56¢ $10 25h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Suzan Lamens 50¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $10 25h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 30¢ $11 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.79 · official $179.96 (match) · 3500 history records