Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b27…3cfa crypto 1174 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$181 (-0%) realized −$181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%1111W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$21
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$287
finance 0% +$23
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 253 -0.5% -10.0% 94% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 1174 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 3% -9.8%
all 1174 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 3% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1111 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1174 / 1174
History coverage91d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1174 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $180 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $110 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $187 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $160 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $110 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $37 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $60 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3253 history records