Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7b28…b6be other 8 markets active 11h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,009 (+25%) realized +$1,009 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$506per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$1,172
sports 27% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 62% 62% +11.7%
≤30d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 62% 62% +11.7%
≤90d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 62% 62% +11.7%
all 8 +11.1% +0.5% 62% 62% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 62% +11.7%
10% -9.1% 62% +1.0%
15% -17.9% 62% -8.7%
20% -26.0% 50% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$385 vs −$327 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,009
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$506
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $349 −$340 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $462 +$279 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $206 +$282 +137%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $451 −$441 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $452 +$413 +91%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $901 +$478 +53%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,020 +$473 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $349 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $462 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $206 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $451 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $452 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $206 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $901 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,020 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records