Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7b29…8e3c crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$23 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,040now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$3
finance 34% +$15
tech 27% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 90% 0% -8.6%
all 10 +0.9% -8.7% 90% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -8.6%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×7.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×71.43 per $1 lost it wins $71.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,040
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage72d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $381 $384 +$3 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $306 $306 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $206 $206 −$1 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $145 $145 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? Jun 05 $159 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $265 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 05 $299 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 05 $309 +$4 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? May 06 $155 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 06 $173 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 06 $182 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 06 $241 +$8 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 06 $263 +$8 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,040.19 · official $1,040.19 (match) · 24 history records