Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

7B 0x7b2a…e1e7 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-5.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+4.0%	-5.9%	50%	50%	+26.2%
≤30d	2	+4.0%	-5.9%	50%	50%	+26.2%
≤90d	2	+4.0%	-5.9%	50%	50%	+26.2%
all	2	+4.0%	-5.9%	50%	50%	+26.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.9%	50%	+26.2%
10%	-14.9%	50%	+14.1%
15%	-23.2%	50%	+3.1%
20%	-30.7%	50%	-7.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$42

Realized+$7

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions6

Markets (closed)2 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	3¢	$10	$7	−$3 (-28%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	48¢	28¢	$10	$6	−$4 (-43%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Under	30¢	36¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+22%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?	Yes	15¢	18¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+23%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	Under	29¢	10¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-64%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$20	+$22	+108%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	30¢	$2	22m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	29¢	$1	46m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	83¢	$42	1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	39¢	$20	2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$10	4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$26	4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	43¢	$51	4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.81 · official $91.81 · 10 history records