Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:29:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7b2c…8062
other · 264 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$46 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$44 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$68
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses209 / 52
Open positions3
Markets (closed)261 / 264
History coverage228d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 3 History 261 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 38¢ 40¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 93¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +20%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 05 $10 +$3 +27%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 +8%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +33%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 31 $7 $0 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $2 +$1 +56%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 27 $5 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $4 −$1 -35%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $3 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $2 −$2 -85%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in May? May 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 20 $2 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $2 $0 +5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 20 $3 $0 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $5 +$1 +11%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? May 19 $40 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? May 19 $5 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $1 $0 +5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 15 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $10 +$1 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $4 $0 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May? May 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? May 11 $2 $0 +19%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $10 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8? May 09 $2 $0 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $2 $0 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $7 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $2 $0 -20%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,450 Week of May 4 2026? May 06 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 Week of May 4 2026? May 05 $2 +$1 +32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $5 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29? May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 28% +$20
tech 24% +$22
world 23% +$7
crypto 11% −$4
finance 11% +$4
politics 2% −$3
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $30 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $3 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 24h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 92¢ $5 43h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 84¢ $2 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 95¢ $4 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 76¢ $1 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 60¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 75¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 56¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL No 76¢ $6 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $10 7d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY No 68¢ $5 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $13 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 83¢ $2 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? BUY Down 92¢ $2 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 10d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 13d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? BUY No 65¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.0% -13.2% 86% 14% -8.1%
≤30d 32 +1.9% -7.8% 81% 22% -7.1%
≤90d 162 +2.9% -6.9% 81% 23% -7.8%
all 261 +2.4% -7.4% 80% 23% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 23% -7.4%
10% -16.2% 12% -16.2%
15% -24.3% 7% -24.3%
20% -31.8% 5% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.30 · official $67.96 (match) · 776 history records