trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 100% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -49.6% | -54.4% | 50% | 0% | -88.1% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -32.9% | -39.3% | 67% | 0% | -90.1% |
| all | 14 | -28.2% | -35.1% | 71% | 0% | -80.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -35.1% | 0% | -80.9% |
| 10% | -41.3% | 0% | -82.7% |
| 15% | -47.0% | 0% | -84.4% |
| 20% | -52.2% | 0% | -85.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 40¢ | 40¢ | $34 | $34 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 25 | $39 | $0 | +1% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 01 | $266 | −$263 | -99% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 20 | $286 | −$284 | -99% |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | Apr 20 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti | Apr 20 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 27 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 07 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | Feb 03 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netflix reach $455 in January? | Feb 03 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Apple reach $360 in January? | Feb 03 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tesla reach $645 in January? | Feb 03 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "His & Hers" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 2 | Feb 03 | $23 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump out as President in 2025? | Jan 20 | $16 | $0 | +0% |