Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7B 0x7b34…0d0a other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$552 (-75%) realized −$552 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$547
other 19% $0
tech 3% −$1
politics 2% $0
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 2 -49.6% -54.4% 50% 0% -88.1%
≤90d 6 -32.9% -39.3% 67% 0% -90.1%
all 14 -28.2% -35.1% 71% 0% -80.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 0% -80.9%
10% -41.3% 0% -82.7%
15% -47.0% 0% -84.4%
20% -52.2% 0% -85.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$138 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage180d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $39 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $266 −$263 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 20 $286 −$284 -99%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Apr 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Apr 20 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $455 in January? Feb 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Apple reach $360 in January? Feb 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $645 in January? Feb 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will "His & Hers" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 2 Feb 03 $23 $0 +1%
Trump out as President in 2025? Jan 20 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.58 · official $33.58 (match) · 26 history records