Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7B 0x7b34…d6da weather 200 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%192W / 7L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$4
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.5% -13.6% 92% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 42 -1.2% -10.6% 98% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 149 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 199 +0.0% -9.5% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.53 per $1 lost it wins $6.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses192 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)199 / 200
History coverage122d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 22? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 22? Jun 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 3? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 29? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 23? May 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 22? May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on May 20? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on May 19? May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 17? May 17 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $17 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $29 32h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $17 34h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? SELL No 30¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? SELL No 52¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $32 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $31 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $16 12d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $6 13d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $6 14d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $32 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $11 16d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $4 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.51 · official $29.51 (match) · 418 history records