Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b36…5f5e sports 1267 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$629 (-2%) realized −$626 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate40%497W / 738L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$44
14 days+$45
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$207
weather 44% −$194
other 4% −$115
culture 1% −$6
crypto 0% −$11
politics 0% −$7
world 0% +$4
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +28.0% +15.8% 16% 3% -9.3%
≤30d 347 -57.3% -61.3% 20% 5% -10.8%
≤90d 1235 -30.5% -37.1% 40% 24% -11.7%
all 1235 -30.5% -37.1% 40% 24% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.1% 24% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -43.2% 21% -20.2%
15% -48.6% 15% -27.9%
20% -53.7% 8% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized−$626
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses497 / 738
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1235 / 1267
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 1235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Under 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Uruguay 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Under 99¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 43¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 443 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $99 −$1 -1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $25 $0 -1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $21 −$1 -5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $35 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 +$50 +9900%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $49 $0 -1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $98 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $98 −$1 -1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $50 −$1 -2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $164 −$1 -0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $166 −$1 -0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $166 −$1 -1%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $52 $0 -1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $161 −$1 -0%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $98 −$1 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 −$1 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $155 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $57 −$1 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $101 −$1 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $101 −$1 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $49 −$1 -1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $49 −$1 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $101 −$1 -1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $81 −$1 -1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $61 −$1 -2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Costa Rica (-1.5) Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Spread: Costa Rica (-2.5) Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Spread: Nigeria (-2.5) Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 100¢ $57 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 96¢ $20 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $49 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $34 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $1 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 97¢ $24 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $48 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 1¢ $0 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $48 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $97 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $97 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $97 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.83 · official $353.81 (match) · 3500 history records