Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7B 0x7b38…2744 crypto 24 markets active 2d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,212per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$21
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.1% -22.3% 86% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 -52.8% -57.3% 47% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 23 -39.0% -44.8% 61% 0% -9.5%
all 23 -39.0% -44.8% 61% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -50.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -54.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -59.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,076) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage31d
Avg bet$1,212
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? Jun 13 $2,076 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,072 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $2,068 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? Jun 11 $2,063 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Jun 11 $2,060 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,056 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 25? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $2,097 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 17? May 17 $2,091 +$6 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 16? May 17 $2,087 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16? May 16 $2,082 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 15? May 16 $2,080 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15? May 15 $2,076 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? May 15 $2,070 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 14 $2,068 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2,076 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,072 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $2,068 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $2,063 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $2,060 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $2,056 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 0¢ $4 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 0¢ $4 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 25d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $5 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $2,097 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $2,091 30d
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,087 30d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,082 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2,080 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2,076 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $2,070 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,068 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.22 · official $5.22 (match) · 40 history records