Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b39…26f4 other 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$27
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$9
sports 23% −$20
culture 8% −$9
politics 7% −$9
economics 7% −$1
crypto 4% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 42 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 164 +0.0% -9.5% 6% 1% -9.6%
all 242 -0.0% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×9.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage137d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $114 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $570 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $470 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $543 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $1,169 −$3 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $269 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $745 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $780 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $246 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,172 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $840 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $660 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $121 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $358 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $293 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $515 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $126 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 28 $157 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $549 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $306 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $159 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $132 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $789 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 14 $286 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $280 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $114 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $114 5h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $114 7h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $114 8h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $114 10h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $114 12h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $114 14h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $114 14h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $115 15h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 18h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 19h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $115 36h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $115 37h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 39h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 41h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $115 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $115 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $115 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $116 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $116 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $116 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $116 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $116 3d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $116 3d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $116 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 3d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 3d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 3d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $116 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.47 · official $113.47 (match) · 1247 history records