trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $35 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $69 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $38 | −$2 | -6% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 09 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 08 | $15 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the | Apr 26 | $62 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most | Apr 26 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 23 | $135 | −$11 | -8% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 22 | $18 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Apr 22 | $31 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 21 | $57 | −$14 | -24% |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | Apr 19 | $25 | +$16 | +63% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun | Apr 18 | $24 | +$5 | +20% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 07 | $220 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Apr 06 | $219 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 06 | $5 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 05 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 05 | $439 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 04 | $219 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 04 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 03 | $71 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Apr 03 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Maine vs. Albany | Mar 03 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 20% | 0% | -10.9% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 20% | 0% | -10.9% |
| ≤90d | 22 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 36% | 9% | -9.9% |
| all | 23 | -2.7% | -12.0% | 35% | 9% | -10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.0% | 9% | -10.5% |
| 10% | -20.4% | 4% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -28.1% | 4% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -35.2% | 4% | -34.1% |