Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7b3c…667c world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$441per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$10
world 32% −$2
politics 29% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -11.1% -19.6% 0% 0% -19.6%
≤90d 4 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 25% -9.2%
all 5 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 20% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 20% -8.8%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$46 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage97d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $526 $527 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 Jun 11 $416 −$46 -11%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? May 23 $153 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $764 +$8 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 02 $286 +$44 +16%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $501 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $526 1h
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 SELL Yes 16¢ $80 12d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 SELL Yes 16¢ $74 12d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 SELL Yes 16¢ $83 12d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 SELL Yes 16¢ $70 12d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 SELL Yes 16¢ $64 12d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 BUY Yes 18¢ $93 20d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 BUY Yes 18¢ $90 20d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 BUY Yes 18¢ $83 20d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 BUY Yes 18¢ $78 20d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 BUY Yes 18¢ $72 20d
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $153 32d
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $153 33d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 83¢ $417 43d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 82¢ $408 58d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? SELL Yes 82¢ $330 82d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY Yes 71¢ $286 85d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 83¢ $511 90d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 82¢ $501 93d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 82¢ $96 95d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 82¢ $142 95d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 82¢ $5 95d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 82¢ $112 95d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 82¢ $355 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.55 · official $524.66 (match) · 43 history records