Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7b45…f893 other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$31
politics 22% −$7
economics 7% −$2
sports 3% −$20
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -2.5% -11.8% 11% 7% -9.7%
all 99 -2.5% -11.8% 11% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 7% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 7% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage87d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $293 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $307 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $82 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $129 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $290 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $264 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $161 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $521 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $252 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $257 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $452 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $505 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $244 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $257 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $240 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $243 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $240 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $482 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $254 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 5h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 23h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 26h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $32 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $63 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records