Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b45…a816 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$13
politics 10% −$6
other 9% −$2
economics 2% $0
sports 1% +$47
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 +5.9% -4.2% 20% 7% -8.0%
≤90d 46 +13.4% +2.6% 30% 22% -8.0%
all 59 +10.3% -0.2% 29% 17% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 17% -9.4%
10% -9.8% 17% -18.1%
15% -18.5% 17% -26.0%
20% -26.5% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage604d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $116 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $8 +$8 +90%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $102 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $9 +$11 +119%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $187 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $96 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $91 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 25 $190 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $287 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $99 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $7 +$3 +46%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $8 +$5 +72%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 10 $7 +$7 +93%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $9 +$7 +72%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 +$7 +108%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $10 +$6 +59%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $16 +$9 +57%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 01 $21 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 01 $42 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) Mar 23 $17 +$18 +103%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $80 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $13,570 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $25 24h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $25 25h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 43h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 45h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 23d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 24d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 24d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $25 25d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 99¢ $46 28d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 29d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $21 30d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $21 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.87 · official $94.87 (match) · 248 history records