Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b4b…6c42 crypto 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate60%159W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day62.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$1
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$110
other 22% −$56
sports 20% +$37
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 33% -9.5%
≤30d 265 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 33% -12.5%
≤90d 265 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 33% -12.5%
all 265 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 33% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 33% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 15% -20.9%
15% -29.4% 8% -28.5%
20% -36.3% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses159 / 106
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)265 / 265
History coverage11d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day62.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 265 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$14 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $125 −$75 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$29 +51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $73 −$14 -19%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $82 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $138 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $143 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $71 +$6 +9%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $65 +$6 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $95 −$30 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -49%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 $0 +10%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $113 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$2 +19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $94 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $82 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +60%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $14 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $58 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 37¢ $59 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $73 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $75 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $76 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $77 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $55 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $55 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $83 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $83 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $64 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $64 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $78 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $78 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $71 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 786 history records