Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7b52…8cee sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$976 (+39%) realized +$1,074 · open −$98
Gross ROI / mkt +121% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +92% what you keep after slip
Net edge+92%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$397
14 days+$706
30 days+$932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$680
other 11% +$91
crypto 10% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+99.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +159.1% +134.4% 53% 53% +18.9%
≤30d 40 +121.0% +99.9% 58% 50% +28.2%
≤90d 40 +121.0% +99.9% 58% 50% +28.2%
all 40 +121.0% +99.9% 58% 50% +28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +99.9% 50% +28.2%
10% +80.8% 48% +16.0%
15% +63.3% 48% +4.8%
20% +47.3% 45% -5.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +121% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +92% → late +150% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$50 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1,074
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage20d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $109 −$11 -10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $182 −$180 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $146 −$143 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $81 +$117 +143%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $54 +$43 +79%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $138 +$109 +78%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $58 +$45 +78%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $139 +$98 +70%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 +$30 +504%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$202 +198%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 −$53 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $251 −$246 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$379 +1845%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 11 $16 +$14 +91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $200 +$8 +4%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $102 +$282 +276%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $179 +$37 +21%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $71 −$70 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $75 −$73 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$9 +181%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $8 +$18 +216%
Shnaider vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $10 +$1 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $123 +$59 +48%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $29 +$29 +100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $55 +$199 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 29 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $21 −$21 -98%
Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5) May 29 $28 −$28 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $49 +$37 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $5 +$57 +1074%
Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Tiafoe May 28 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $98 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $109 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $182 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $54 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $240 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $13 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $103 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $6 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $139 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.45 · official $2.45 (match) · 100 history records