Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b56…d9b1 sports 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%41W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$47
other 26% −$47
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.2% +7.0% 71% 71% -56.2%
≤30d 60 -1.1% -10.6% 57% 52% -9.7%
≤90d 74 +0.5% -9.1% 55% 51% -9.9%
all 74 +0.5% -9.1% 55% 51% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 51% -9.9%
10% -17.8% 46% -18.5%
15% -25.7% 36% -26.4%
20% -33.0% 28% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses41 / 33
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)74 / 79
History coverage33d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +143%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +75%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qu May 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs KRÜ Spark (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regu May 20 $8 +$1 +10%
Valorant: FOKUS vs REBORN (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group B May 19 $5 +$3 +54%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tristan Schoolkate vs Kimmer Coppeja May 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: VARREL vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qu May 19 $2 +$1 +48%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $20 +$2 +10%
Valorant: Contra vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea May 19 $16 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $12 +$7 +60%
Valorant: REBORN vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group B May 18 $5 −$3 -56%
Valorant: 9z Team vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: May 18 $2 $0 -16%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka May 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $5 $0 -8%
Cervia: Sandro Kopp vs Max Alcala Gurri May 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification (Doubles): Romboli/Seggerman vs B May 18 $2 $0 -6%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 18 $5 +$7 +130%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2 +$3 +158%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 17 $18 $0 -1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner May 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner May 17 $5 +$4 +82%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 17 $15 $0 -2%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 17 $1 $0 -7%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? May 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $10 +$4 +41%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will CSD Municipal win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1 +$1 +82%
Will CSD Xelajú MC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD - Map 1 Winner May 17 $15 +$4 +28%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $1 $0 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 9m
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 22m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 41m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 55m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $4 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 59m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 20¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 1h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 22d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 24d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $3 24d
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 24d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 65¢ $2 24d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $1 24d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers $1 26d
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qu SELL Sentinels 100¢ $11 26d
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qu BUY Sentinels 87¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.86 · official $10.86 (match) · 153 history records